Here's the honest case, and the names most likely to break through. This is our read, not a tip sheet, and no golf bet is worth money you can't afford to lose. Odds move by the hour, so treat the numbers here as a snapshot from Open week, not gospel.
Why Might a First-Timer Win at Birkdale?
Because The Open lets the field drag the favourites back like no other major. Links golf and the wind off the Irish Sea flatten the talent gap. When it howls through those Birkdale dunes, club selection turns into a coin toss, and the distance between the world number one and a 40-1 shot shrinks by the hole. Brian Harman proved it at Hoylake in 2023, strolling off with the jug as a +12500 nobody while the room barely reacted.
The numbers stack up too. The Open hasn't had a back-to-back champion since Padraig Harrington in 2008, the longest drought of the four majors, which makes Scheffler's title defence a genuine long shot on history alone. And the favourite arrives cold, having just missed the cut at the Scottish Open. If you've been waiting for a chance to ask will there be a first-time Open winner, this is the year to ask it.
Who Are the Best First-Time Claret Jug Contenders?
A few, and some are in the best form of anyone in the field. These are the players hunting a first Open with a real shot at it.
- Matt Fitzpatrick (around +1800). Three wins in 2026, more than anyone, plus a T3 at the Scottish Open where he led big stretches of the weekend. He's got a US Open already, so not a first major, but he's never won this, he's English, and he's playing at home. Plenty of experts have him as their outright pick.
- Tommy Fleetwood (around +1900). Southport's own son. He grew up near this course and knows every hollow and gust. Two Open runner-ups, and the town will be deafening for him. Tommy Fleetwood Open chances always spike here, though his 2026 form is the worry, no major top-10 all year.
- Chris Gotterup (around +2900). Won the Scottish Open in 2025, finished third at last year's Open, and has three wins this season. A proper links player. The catch is his driving accuracy, 129th on tour, which Birkdale's thick rough will happily punish.
Who Could Win Their Very First Major?
This is the good bit, because a couple of genuine stars have never won a major at all. For them, a Sunday at Birkdale would be a true first.
- Ludvig Åberg. One of the purest drivers in the game, a flat ball flight built for links wind, and a T4 at the PGA this year. Some models tab him a top-three contender. The Ludvig Åberg first major story feels less like if and more like when, and Birkdale suits him.
- Viktor Hovland. Fresh off beating Scheffler in the Travelers playoff, and The Open hides his shaky short game better than any major. When Hovland's hot he wins in clusters, and he's warm right now.
- Wyndham Clark. Two US Opens already, so not a first major, but he's never won an Open and turns up as one of golf's coldest closers off a T5 at the Travelers.
The cleanest first-major shouts are Åberg and Hovland. Both have the game. Neither has the trophy. Birkdale is exactly the sort of examination that flips that.
Why Might Scheffler or McIlroy Just Win It Anyway?
Because they're that good, and pretending otherwise is wishful thinking. The Scheffler McIlroy Open odds sit where they do for a reason. Scheffler has been the steadiest player since Tiger Woods, he's the defending champion, and he's never finished outside the top 25 in an Open. One missed cut on a course he's never liked doesn't wipe that out.
McIlroy's playing loose and happy, closed the Scottish Open with a 64, and already owns a T4 at Birkdale from 2017. Between them they've taken six of the last 19 majors. The heart wants a first-timer. The head still respects the two at the top, because class tends to surface when Sunday gets tight.
What Actually Decides The Open?
The weather, ahead of anything on any odds sheet. This is links golf, and the draw can bury you before Friday's out. Half the field in calm, half in a gale, and three or four shots separate them with nobody hitting it any worse. Watch the forecast waves as hard as you watch the leaderboard.
Then there's the Royal Birkdale course fit. The fairways run through flat valleys between towering dunes, so decent shots mostly get fair bounces. Birkdale doesn't cheat you, the sky does. That rewards straight driving over brute distance, and it punishes anyone who leaks it into the rough. Whoever finds fairways and flights their irons will be around on Sunday, favourite or debutant.
The Raw Read
We'll give you the honest answer: yeah, a first-time winner is very much on. The Open is the major most likely to hand the jug to a new name, the favourite just missed a cut, and the chasing pack is stacked with players chasing either a first Open or a first major full stop. Åberg or Hovland breaking through would surprise nobody who's watched them. Fitzpatrick or Fleetwood finally landing it would set the place alight.
But don't shove Scheffler and McIlroy aside just because the story wants a fresh face. The two best players alive are the two best players alive, and Birkdale's fair bounces actually reward good ball-strikers. If you want a first-timer, Åberg's the one whose game fits this place best. If you trust class, you lean on the big two. Either way, keep half an eye on the wind, because at The Open it writes more of the ending than any Open Championship dark horse pick ever will.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favourite to win the Open Championship 2026?
Scottie Scheffler, at around +600 to +750, with Rory McIlroy next near +780 to +860. They are the only two players with single-digit-ish odds in the Royal Birkdale odds market, and both prices move daily.
Could a first-time major winner win at Royal Birkdale?
Yes, and it's very possible. Ludvig Åberg and Viktor Hovland are the strongest contenders who have never won a major, and both fit links golf well.
Which first-time Open contenders are in form?
Matt Fitzpatrick, with three wins in 2026 and a T3 at the Scottish Open, and Chris Gotterup, the 2025 Scottish Open champion, lead the in-form players chasing a first Claret Jug.
Why is The Open more likely to produce a surprise winner?
Links golf and coastal wind are equalisers that narrow the gap between favourites and longshots. Brian Harman won in 2023 as a huge outsider.
Has The Open had a back-to-back champion recently?
No. The last was Padraig Harrington in 2007 and 2008, the longest current drought of the four majors, which makes Scheffler's defence historically tough.
What kind of course is Royal Birkdale?
A fair links where fairways run through flat valleys between dunes, so good shots get fair bounces. Accuracy off the tee matters more than distance, because the rough is penal.